Weekend Briefing: Big Tech Earnings Disappoint, Iran Tensions Flare, New Tariffs Take Effect

The week that was

**Monday** — Iran-related jitters knocked the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ETF lower even as chip names attempted a modest comeback, with escalating Middle East tensions keeping oil bid heading into the week's biggest earnings.

**Tuesday** — a reprieve. Strong early earnings lifted both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 even as Middle East tensions continued to loom over markets heading into Wednesday's headline reports.

**Wednesday** — the marquee session. Alphabet and Tesla both reported after the close. Alphabet's cloud revenue accelerated 24% (Cloud itself up 81–82%), but free cash flow turned negative after $45B in quarterly capex, and shares fell roughly 4% in after-hours on renewed questions about AI spending discipline, a new EU fine, and Alphabet's recent $80B AI-focused equity raise. Tesla delivered record revenue of $28.24B (up 26% YoY, beating the ~$26.4B consensus) on record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, but adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed the ~$0.47–$0.53 Street estimate by around 30%, with operating margin narrowing to just 1.4%; shares dropped nearly 5% after hours and Tesla fell over 14% intraday Thursday. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 had already sagged into the close awaiting the results.

**Thursday** — the worst day of the week. The Dow tumbled more than 500 points (-1%) to 51,711.65, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their worst one-day declines since June 23 (S&P -1.2% to 7,408.30, Nasdaq -2.2% to 25,137.69) as surging oil prices and the tech capex sell-off rattled investors; communications and consumer discretionary stocks were hit hardest, both down more than 5%. Intel, however, posted a standout quarter after the close — adjusted EPS of $0.42 versus $0.21 expected and revenue of $16.1B versus $14.42B expected, its fastest revenue growth since 2011 — with shares initially climbing on the print. Also Thursday: the White House confirmed sweeping new tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 trading partners (covering 99.4% of U.S. imports), replacing the expiring 10% global tariff, effective at midnight.

**Friday** — a partial stabilization. The Dow rose 0.5% and the S&P 500 was roughly flat, while the Nasdaq slipped another 0.6% as Intel shares reversed lower despite the beat. Brent crude eased almost 4% off its $102 intraweek spike as the White House exempted some energy products from the new tariffs, while S&P Global's flash PMI showed U.S. business activity expanding at its fastest pace in eight months, boosted in part by World Cup-related activity. Verizon, American Express, and NextEra Energy all beat on earnings but missed on revenue.

The takeaway

Strong headline earnings are no longer enough on their own — the market is now pricing AI capex discipline as much as growth, geopolitics (Iran) and trade policy (new tariffs) are back as simultaneous live risks, and all of this sets up a tense run into next week's Fed decision and the heaviest stretch of Big Tech earnings all year.

The week ahead: the Fed and the rest of Big Tech

This is arguably the single most important week of the summer: the July FOMC decision lands the same week as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon all report — with Chair Warsh's press conference and Wednesday's Big Tech prints landing on the same afternoon.

**Earnings, by day:**

• **Monday, July 27:** a quiet open before the week's main events
• **Tuesday, July 28:** Visa, Merck, Procter & Gamble, Starbucks, UPS, Booking Holdings, Enterprise Products, Sherwin-Williams
• **Wednesday, July 29 (FOMC day):** Meta and Microsoft after the close, alongside Qualcomm, Robinhood, Boston Scientific, Humana, General Dynamics, KLA, PPG Industries, Waste Management
• **Thursday, July 30 (busiest day):** Apple and Amazon after the close, alongside Mastercard, Comcast, Coinbase, Altria, Yum! Brands, Hershey, Stryker, First Solar
• **Friday, July 31:** quiet on earnings — the week's focus shifts fully to data

Macro, by day

• **Tuesday, July 28** — July Consumer Confidence (FactSet consensus 92.2 vs. 91.2 in June)
• **Wednesday, July 29, 2:00pm ET** — FOMC rate decision, followed by Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30pm (no new dot plot this cycle); also Q2 GDP (FactSet consensus 2.5% vs. 2.1% in Q1)
• **Thursday, July 30** — weekly initial jobless claims, Personal Income & Spending, and the core PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — FactSet consensus 3.4% YoY, matching May)
• **Friday, July 31** — Employment Cost Index (Q2), Chicago PMI, and final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)

Why it matters

The July 28–29 meeting won't come with fresh multi-year rate projections — the dot plot only accompanies the March, June, September, and December meetings — so Warsh's tone and word choice, not new forecasts, will be what actually moves markets. With core PCE landing just one day after the decision and Q2 GDP the same morning, the Fed's "family fight" between hold-or-cut and hike-leaning members gets tested by real data in real time. Layer on Apple trading near all-time highs into a print where Wall Street wants EPS growth of 20.4% to $1.89 on $108.89B in revenue, and Meta and Microsoft reporting hours after the rate decision, and this is the week that will set the tone for the rest of the summer. After Alphabet and Tesla's reception this week, expect capex commentary — not just headline beats — to drive the reaction across all four names.

See our recap of Tesla Q2 2026 for the full margin breakdown, and use the earnings calendar to track Wednesday and Thursday's after-the-close prints.

*Not investment advice. For informational and educational purposes only.*