A little over a month after one of the most anticipated market debuts in history, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) has done something its earliest backers didn't expect: it broke below its own $135 IPO price. Shares briefly touched the $132–$133 range this week before clawing back to close just above $135, marking a fourth straight down session and a more than 30% drawdown from the post-IPO high of roughly $225 hit in mid-June. For a stock that made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire on paper and raised a record ~$86 billion in its June 12 offering, this is a sobering reset. Here's what's driving the move, what to watch into earnings, and how traders are framing the "buy the dip" debate.
Why SPCX stock is sliding
A few forces are compounding at once:
- **Thin float, wild swings.** Only about 4–5% of SpaceX's total shares are actually trading, which has amplified moves in both directions since the debut. The same thin float that fueled the euphoric run to $225 is now working in reverse as sentiment cools.
- **Profit-taking and valuation reassessment.** Analysts have pointed to early holders locking in gains and a broader rethink of the sky-high valuation investors initially assigned the stock — Morningstar flagged the valuation as stretched even before the IPO priced.
- **Lock-up mechanics on the horizon.** The 180-day lock-up doesn't fully expire until December 8, 2026, but a first tranche (~20%) is set to unlock around Q2 earnings, followed by smaller tranches every few weeks through October, and a larger release (~28%) tied to Q3 results in the fall. Traders are already positioning for the added supply.
- **No fresh catalyst.** With the quiet period still in effect for underwriters and no earnings print yet, there's been little new information to anchor the stock — just momentum unwinding.
When is the SpaceX earnings report?
This is the big one. SpaceX's first-ever public earnings report — technically Q2 2026 results — is expected in the **first half of August**, with **August 6, 2026** circulating as the most-cited date among data providers, though some estimates stretch into mid-August or even early September. Treat the exact date as not yet fully confirmed until SpaceX issues an official notice.
Whatever the date, this print matters more than a typical "first earnings" report because:
1. **It's the first real fundamental checkpoint** since the IPO — the first chance for underwriting banks to publish independent research after their quiet period lifts. 2. **It coincides with the first lock-up tranche**, so results and share-supply dynamics will hit at the same time. 3. **Musk's commentary carries weight.** Given his track record on Tesla calls of teasing aggressive timelines and surprise announcements, expect the call itself to move the stock independently of the numbers.
What to expect from the numbers
Public detail is still limited, but the business breaks into three distinct pieces investors will be watching separately:
- **Starlink** — the only clearly profitable segment today, with roughly $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue and a strong adjusted EBITDA margin. This is the segment likeliest to show steady, trackable growth, though rising competition from Amazon's Kuiper is a watch item.
- **Starship / launch cadence** — the segment with the widest range of outcomes. A Starship test flight this week (the 13th) follows engineering fixes after a prior flight anomaly; any commentary on commercialization timelines here could swing sentiment sharply.
- **Everything else** (satellite/defense contracts, new ventures) — likely to get less disclosure but plenty of Musk color commentary.
Given the stock has no P/E to speak of (SpaceX is not yet profitable at the net level) and trades at a rich price-to-sales multiple, the market is pricing in growth and execution — meaning any hint of a slower Starship timeline or Starlink deceleration could hit the stock harder than the actual revenue miss would justify.
Should you buy the SPCX dip?
There's a real split forming among analysts and commentators, and it's worth seeing both sides rather than picking one:
**The bull case:** Some strategists argue the pullback is simply IPO froth normalizing, not a change in the underlying business — Starlink's growth is real, Starship remains the only reusable heavy-lift platform at scale, and a $135 entry is far more reasonable than the $225 peak. A few price targets circulating are well above current levels.
**The bear case:** Others argue the stock is still priced for near-perfect execution, that the coming lock-up unlocks (through October and again around Q3 earnings) will keep supply pressure elevated for months, and that a name this large and hyped rarely bottoms on its first down-leg. At least one prominent prediction has the stock drifting toward the $100 level by year-end.
**The practical read for active traders:** The IPO price itself ($135) has become the key technical level to watch — it's acting as a psychological support/resistance line, and how the stock behaves around it into the August print will tell you more than any single headline. Position sizing matters more than usual here given the volatility a thin float can produce, and anyone considering an entry before earnings should size for the possibility of a sharp move in either direction on the print itself, not just steady drift.
*This is market commentary, not investment advice — SPCX is volatile, thinly floated, and not yet profitable, so treat any dip-buying decision as a personal risk call, not a formula.*
Key SPCX dates to watch
- **Q2 2026 earnings:** expected early-to-mid August (August 6 most cited)
- **Ongoing ~7% lock-up tranches:** August–October 2026
- **Q3 earnings / ~28% lock-up release:** late October / November 2026
- **Full 180-day lock-up expiration:** December 8, 2026